It shouldn't be all doom and gloom in the movement

Summary
Whatever happens on the military front, the movement for world reform has a historical opportunity. Let's seize it.

Never has there been such doom and gloom as in some sections of the peace and world reform movements. To our instinctive grief is added the horror of what might come next as the forces of justice or revenge gather and the armchair generals get ever more prominence in the media. Many envionmental campaigns in the US have temporarily closed down.

After the 2000 Terrorism Act, the war on terrorism could be more effective against dissent at home than against its presumed target. It is now a terrorist act to attend a meeting which is addressed by someone who advocates damaging a fence. If an Iraqi intelligence agent came to the meeting this would constitute proof that Iraq is involved in terrorism.

We in the peace movement are no strangers to grieving for people we do not know on the other side of the world. We grieved for the murdered in East Timor, Guatemala, Chile. But sharing grief has often meant getting into arguments. It was best kept private. We were used to turning up the volume on what little news the media offered us us after previous disasters. Most newspapers refused to print even a picture of the Basra Road attrocity in Iraq, they said it was in bad taste. Those who turned up the volume this time are still in a state of shock. This new grief is mass grief.

On the ground, it looks as bad as it could be. Armies are massing, the war porno pics are adorning tabloids and broadsheets. We know what this means. We remember. How many people thought that the price of enforcing international law in Kuwait was going to be a country bombed back to the stone age and 200,000 dead? How many thought at the outset that Kossovo would end in the flattening of Serbia, depleted uranium and environmental disaster for the Danube?

The armies, we are told, are being put in place just to make all available options open to the President. Now we fear the spectacular U-turn. Are we stupid? Haven't we heard of the Grand Old Duke of York? The war must go on, there is no alternative. If we pull the troops back now, every muslim in the democratic civilised USA will be lynched. We fear that the mirror image of Osama Bin Laden inhabits the democratic civilised US cabinet. We know this scenario leads to disaster.

But, since September 11th, so do a lot of people who have never been in any peace movement. Every inhabitant of New York, Washington and London looked into the abyss on that terrible day. Wilful ignorance of world affairs and the West's role in them is now an option only for the exceptionally stupid in these cities.

Yes, the Zionists were first off the mark with a generous offer of help from an ebullient Ehud Barak, but this probably backfired as badly as the hate campaign on US tv repeatedly juxtaposing the twin tower with images of Palestinians allegedly rejoicing. There's no point in whipping up the hate when the army is not ready and has no plan. The biggest hit was on the stock market. And here's the rub.

The warmongers have a lot to be depressed about as well. We all know now about the tactical problems in Afghanistan, but the strategic situation looks even worse. Yes, the establishment could be cynically softening up liberal opinion with a controlled dose of moderation, but to what end? The arabs oil weapon is dry and dusted and in reserve. As in the case of Suez, disproportionate retalliation could get the veto that really matters, the one from Wall Street. Threat that the Middle East would go up in flames have been ignored in the past, but since September 11th the Middle East spans the whole world as a cheerful Ehud Barak reminds us, pedalling his tired story of the offer Arafat could not refuse. The White House is entangled in a coalition which before long may start to get tough not only on terrorism but on the causes of terrorism.

Speaking inarticulately and apparently from the heart on CNN George Bush talks of humankind and says he is an optimist. If he's stupid, it's pretty good acting, if he's not what future could he possibly see in escalation? I too am an optimist and I am reminded of Churchill's observation that America does the right thing only after it's tried all the available wrong things. They've tried pretty much every wrong thing from bankrolling Israeli lawbreaking for thirty five years to destroying Iraq. They flirted with the right thing under Bush senior who cut the money supply, forcing Israel into the Oslo accords. There's plenty of cause to try it again now.

Most people who are not pacifists concede in principle the US right to demand and if necessary enforce the extradition of Osama Bin Laden, and most agree the Taliban is a quasi-fascist organisation. But even if it all goes horribly wrong, let us also remember that the Vietnam war era saw arguably the biggest wave of progressive legislation ever in the US, from Civil Rights to Medicare.

Beyond the narrow war on terrorism, truly amazing things are happening. The EU  looks set to adopt some variant of the Tobin tax on currency speculation, in global terms as revolutionary as income tax was domestically. The money laundering tax havens which would be used to undermine collection of the tax are now under unprecedented pressure. The aviation industry, which contributes more to global warming than the whole of Africa, has been massively curtailed. Ironically, recession threatens to impose the Kyoto targets on the US whether they like it or not. What future for the nuclear industry if it cannot make its reactors proof to this new risk?

So here's an action plan for the depressed. As Elton John had to remind us after the death of Diana, the time for grief is now drawing to a close. If you must go on grieving, grieve for the children of Iraq - on UNICEF figures, another 5,000 will soon have died. Ask yourself whether, after Haiti, a limited US adventure in Afghanistan is necessarily a global disaster.

Vary your media diet, and you'll get some pleasant surprises. In my experience the biggest single source of warmongering is dear old autie BBC's news bulletins. One reporter actually said that now the military are there Bush `must` use them. Worse still in the long run, in implicit defiance of international law, the BBC insists on the moral equivalence of Israel and Palestine. If you must talk terrorism and war, don't talk about terrorist Osama Bin Laden, talk about terrorist Ariel Sharon.

But above all, think globally and think positively. Whatever happens on the military front, the movement for world reform has a historical opportunity. Let's seize it.